Demographics are destiny. And educational institutionals rely on demographic trends to chart their futures. In most cases, the demographic trends that are most important to any particular institution are fairly narrowly defined by geography. A relatively small percentage of US institutions can effectively draw students from across the country and around the world.
To give us insight into the demographic trends that will define our future, the U.S. government's National Center for Education Statistic's published it's very comprehensive updated Education Statistics to 2022 . Do the math -- you are only 8 years from this recruiting environment.
ELEVATOR SUMMARY: *- Private high schools will experience continued, substantial declines in student enrollment
- Strong growth in female enrollment at undergraduate and graduate levels
- Graduate level education growth is slowing but still substantial
- Be aware of regional demographic trends -- academic recruitment in the mid-West and Northeast will become tougher
- Educational institutions will experience a much more diverse student body on their campuses
[* Note to Readers: About 40 % of you are using mobile devices to open our emails and a few of you have asked if we could condense our Intead Insights to be digested during their morning elevator rides. Small screens and short attention spans rule the world today. Please let us know if you like this digest up front in our posts.]
So, after the elevator summary, we offer those with larger screens and longer attention spans more details and charts. We hope you fall into this camp, because we still get a kick out of longer format writing -- meaning no disrespect to our phone-based readers ;-)
Figure 9 (below) shows the overall numbers of public high school graduates by region. You will note the declines in the Northeast and Midwest compared to the increases in the South and West. Much of the growth is driven by Hispanic high school students. This segment is expected to grow by one third by 2022 compared to 2011.
Figure 25 and 26 (below) show the expected increase by level of education and gender: bachelor degrees (Figure 25) are expected to rise by 17% compared to master level education by 36%(Figure 26). And this difference is striking: female undergraduates are growing by 22% vs. 11% for male undergraduates by 2022. Female graduate level completion is expected to grow by 45% vs. 22% for male awards. No doubt women will be more educated than their peer males (aka slackers).
In all seriousness, these differentials are significant. Consider the future workforce. Will men continue to hold onto the C-suite over the next four or five decades as these educated women rise through the ranks? We foresee some significant changes in corporate America that may make today's debates seem quaint.
The Bottom Line: As university administrators, educators and marketers we have to be prepared for:
- A more culturally diverse audience
- A more female oriented audience
- Demographic challenges in the Northeast and Midwest
Source: National Center for Education Statistics
