There’s a reason people look to Netflix as a case study in perseverance. After transforming the video rental landscape – from in-person stores to in-home DVD delivery, then to streaming and producing new video content – Netflix now leads a global shift in how content is created and consumed. Blockbuster was once its biggest rival. Today it’s YouTube.
Netflix’s journey is marked with notable missteps and market hits. Headlines like “The Year Netflix Almost Died” capture the 2011 fallout when the company lost 800,000 customers and its stock value plummeted nearly 80 percent. Yet, here they are, stronger than ever and global. So, do you have a Netflix subscription? Yeah. Us, too. The company clearly knows how to recover.
The lesson here: We can survive really rough times if we’re smart about our response to market volatility. Time to focus on the details and control the controllable.
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- Look for us at NAFSA in May, APLU in June, NACUBO in July, and NACAC in September. Let us know if you want to connect at these events.
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US higher ed is at a pivotal moment as policy develops around the world and potential students consider how best to pursue their own interests. How we respond now will affect our viability tomorrow and in the years ahead. The good news: history (and Netflix) shows us that recovery is possible. And there are lessons of resilience and recovery from within academia worth looking at as well.
Take the UK. In 2008, the UK introduced a point-based immigration system and a Post-Study Work (PSW) visa allowing two years of work after graduation. Four years later, PSW was shuttered, causing an immediate decline in international student interest. A self-inflicted wound from Downing Street to the UK higher education system not unlike the international student disruptions being inflicted on US higher ed today. Interestingly, the number of main applicant-sponsored study visas issued only fell to 2008 levels and remained mostly stable until 2016, when numbers began to rise again.
Even though overall visa numbers fell some universities took action that helped them outperform the sector and beat their own pre-2012 enrollment. Queen’s University Belfast was one with a comprehensive data-informed package of measures, including extensive faculty engagement, scholarship packages, enhanced agent involvement, and a focus on processes to improve the applicant journey. It was a whole institution approach matching strategic investment with operational excellence. They controlled the controllable.
Then there’s Australia, which saw a steep international student decline a decade ago due to tightened visa scrutiny. Now, they are seeking to limit the number of international students studying in-country each year to 240,000. Canada, too, is currently working through its own hastily decreed cap on incoming international students, self-inflicted just last year.
In fact, not once during this century have all four major anglophone recruiting countries (US, UK, Australia, Canada) had benevolent student and work visa policies simultaneously. There is almost always one or another imposing self-defeating rules upon themselves. Yet, 2025 brings us to a point where all four of these nations want to limit incoming international students – whether through direct intent or visa policy and rhetoric – rather than smoothing the international student path. It seems some policymakers have lost sight of the direct correlation between economic growth and academic strength (education and research capability).
This current state is not the first period of stress and difficulty international students and institutions have faced.
Despite bouts of turbulence, each receiving country continues to see an incoming flow of international students. In our view, it’s reasonable to assume international students will remain motivated to attain a foreign degree and a US degree will remain attractive to a large number of foreign students. So, we pursue what we can control and what can be changed (or challenged) and do so with a mindset that is measured not panicked.
What does all that mean for your approach to internationalization?
Read on…
Here’s what we think is important for recruitment and admissions teams to remember in this moment:
US degrees remain desirable.
The US produces globally respected degrees and its breadth, depth, and quality of institutions is unparalleled. Students with an eye on post-graduation career potential know this – and importantly, so do multinational employers. In a new NAFSA – Intead Global Talent report on career outcomes of recent international graduates, 57 percent of respondents found positions with major US corporations, including Fortune 500 companies like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft.
But the opportunities extend beyond US-based work. Many students use their US-earned degrees to advance careers back home or elsewhere in the world. Thanks to LinkedIn and alumni networks, it’s easier than ever for students to make meaningful career connections. And in many global companies, the HR team has a US degree themselves. That common point of connection is invaluable for job seekers.
Your job working within the US academic world is to help facilitate these career connections.
International students are increasingly pragmatic.
The international student mindset is moving from that of dreamer to one of pragmatist. Students want to know:
- Is your degree worth it?
- What is the ROI?
- Will they get internships, job support, hands-on learning opportunities?
In other words, they need proof that the resources and energy spent on you will pay off. They need assurances that coming to your campus is worth the effort and financial sacrifice. How strong are your answers to these questions? Have you read our recent, actionable reports on how to adjust your marketing approach?
Career support is a differentiator.
Ask your graduates how their university experience was, and many will likely say “great!” Then ask if their university’s career services helped, and most will say “not much,” if they register what that department is at all.
Sure, some institutions get this right. But the vast majority do not. Case in point: A 2019 UUK study shows only 2 percent of international students in the UK found a job through their university career services. It often comes down to a lack of institutional resources, we get it. But, the US universities doing a good job at this – Northeastern, USC, Carnegie Mellon, Drexel – stand out, and students notice. We'll have more research to share with you on this topic in the coming months.
Increasingly important is knowing how to help your international students find a job once they return to their home country. This is where alumni can supplement your institution’s programs as your in-country career services surrogate. The trick is, of course, tracking your international alumni and using them effectively as a network for career-seeking students as well as career-minded prospects. Effective career services act as one of the best (and under-utilized) recruitment tools. Side note: this blog series on alumni network and this alumni recruitment evaluation tool are great resources.
US declines, even steep, still mean students are coming.
There are about 1.1 million international students (883,908 enrolled + 242,782 OPT per IIE) in the US today. Just for conjecture, if that number drops a hair-raising 30 percent (to about where it was in the mid-2000s), about 620,000 international students (and about 170,000 OPT) would still be enrolled at US institutions. Painful, sure. Still more than other international destinations.
And there’s the fact that people’s memory is short. The UK and Australia are examples of that. Once their strict immigration policies began to loosen, students came back. Note that the student population is new every year – not the same customers again and again. So, instead of focusing on the losses, focus on reaching the students who are planning to study in the US and build a strong pipeline of prospects.
So many institutions are stopped in their tracks due to market shifts and ambiguity. Those that act are the ones that reap the benefits of the student pool with continued interest. Those that take action, control the controllable, recover faster.
Target. Connect. Support. It’s time to lean in.
The algorithm for finding best-fit students is constant: data + targeting + connection + nurturing = yield. An oversimplification, but our point: now is the time to use data to pinpoint target countries or regions to find students who can afford your institution, see the correlation between your programs and career opportunities in their country, can process visas in time (which is unfortunately getting more difficult in some locations), and meet other key admissions criteria. Then do everything you can to make real connections with these prospects. Relationship building has never been more important. Reassurances are found in human connection and stories of career success.
We are in an unprecedented moment for US higher ed – there's no time for hand wringing. Institutions that succeed through the chaos are those that lean into a whole institution approach to student recruitment and retention. This means engaging with the academic community (faculty engagement and support), persuading campus leadership (CFO, Provost, Chancellor) to keep key projects on the docket, and making sure all processes are aligned and well-managed. Now is no time to be shy. And, should you need a partner to help keep student recruitment on track, be in touch.
Many thanks to our good friend Alan Preece for weighing in on this post and sharing his experience at Queen’s University Belfast during turbulent times. Find Alan on LinkedIn here. Follow his insightful blog here.
