NACAC 2025 Reflections: Students, Staffing, + New H-1B Implications

How far does the data go in helping us develop a strategy? Create a plan? 

Iliana and I took to NACAC in Columbus, Ohio this year. Reveled in hearing Brene Brown talk all things leadership and vulnerability. Participated in the sessions on global and domestic enrollment realities. Wandered the expo hall checking in on colleagues and clients throughout.  

NACAC is such a multi-faceted group of academic leaders paired with the many, many student-facing counselors. The responsibilities of these different facets of higher education are often at odds and that too is on display at every NACAC conference.  

Pro Tip: If you truly want to understand an organization, attend their business meeting and listen to the issues raised (or ignored). Fascinating stuff and the true grist that both slows and drives progress. NACAC, along with the many other associations serving our community, has very well-meaning leaders and members all struggling to figure out how to move forward in aggressively turbulent times. 

Staffing Without the $tuffing  

At the NACAC conference this year, we listened intently to chief enrollment officers – some newly minted, others long-time veterans – talk about the changes they are experiencing on their campuses.  

With steadfast determination and plenty of sighs, they delivered stories of role expansion due to staff reductions and departmental consolidations. They are responsible for far more organizationally than ever before. They expressed concerns about the workload and their primary responsibility for delivering the next class (enrollment numbers). 

They talked about staffing shortages for the roles that still exist and the challenge of keeping people at the associate director level. Junior colleagues are often being promoted to managerial roles and it is trial by fire. The result: strained time commitment by senior administrators who must address issues and crises that inevitably emerge due to lack of training time for the newly promoted. The reality and the challenge: learning to manage takes time and supervision. 

They talked about the growing financial constraints on their institutions with some 100+ year old institutions plainly talking about how many more months (not years) their institution could operate with the current cash flow projections due to new policies flowing out of Washington, DC. So yes, there will be a higher number of closures in the next 12-24 months. 

We know the many factors prompting these trying times. Sure, there are demographic cliff factors that reduce the number of students seeking a college education. There are the never-ending concerns and myths swirling around rising tuition and families questioning the value of a college education. And there is the unfortunate reality that some regions in the US simply have too many redundant higher education institutions. While other regions have limited or no access to higher education. Inevitably, market forces and economic realities will prompt a culling of the herd. 

It is not too much of a stretch to see a university education as a luxury item. We could all seek jobs straight out of high school without that extra investment of time and money for the degree. 

Yet, we know that data supports the value of getting a degree over the course of one’s life. Those who suggest otherwise are part of the clown show that has taken over Washington. Their arguments are baseless. Their motives undermine the very societal systems they depend upon for their livelihood and personal success. Sigh.  

US Supply = Student Demand (basically) 

NCES tells us the US offers roughly 2,267 four-year and 1,275 two-year higher ed institutions. The US has a population of students completing high school each year of roughly 4.3M. And history tells us that roughly 62% of US high school students go on to enroll in a 2- or 4-year program.  

Based on these figures, we need roughly 2.67M first-year higher education seats to meet demand. And estimates show that, in fact, first-year capacity at US institutions is roughly 2.4M-2.6M seats. 

Simple Metaphor: If 10 restaurants in your area all serve essentially the same food, there may not be enough folks dining out to support all of them. If the area has just 1 restaurant, as long as it serves the type of food the region enjoys, there will be plenty of customers to keep that shop in business.  

Bottom line: Current supply is equal to US student demand overall. The issue at hand, with the numbers so close (supply = demand), different regions have overcapacity while others are more of an education desert.  

And this Key NACAC Topic: The Career Thing 

One factor of the new H-1B $100K visa fee proposal that has only recently been clarified – the fee does not apply to US-trained, F1 visa students. Tech and healthcare companies that rely heavily on international talent will be leaning heavily into hiring recent graduates on OPT when they cannot fill their jobs with qualified Americans. This new visa rule, if fully implemented, will make a US degree even more desirable for international students. 

Look, we’ve been at this work of influencing domestic and international student choices and evaluating realistic enrollment targets for more than 15 years now. We began analyzing the data and publishing our findings a long time ago. We’ve reported on student sentiment and delved into their motivations and the people who guide them when making important decisions about their lives. 

That work, that analysis, has continued here and been picked up by many other talented folks with access to valuable student mobility data. We’re thankful as we watch reliable and talented organizations contribute to our field, helping our community of academic leaders make smart decisions. [See our recent, popular post: Everything Has Changed, But Has It?] 

What Comes Next 

Keep watch for more research we’re conducting with leaders like AIEA. We will be producing research designed to help enrollment leaders make bold, data-informed moves in uncertain times (more on that very soon and, if you want the early insights, be in touch). The landscape may be shifting, but perseverance depends on the leadership basics we saw at NACAC: harnessing curiosity, collaboration, and purpose.  

Big Picture To Do List (This may be obvious to some?):  

• Take the lead. Your institution needs your skill, perseverance, and steady hand. 

• Evaluate the regional and international data available against your most popular, market demand-driven degree programs. Increase the amount of time you spend each week watching and reading to be sure you are on top of the flow of changes that affect your capacity to perform. 

• Focus on the smaller bets that allow for adaptability/flexibility (so important when the future is so murky). Think modular and incremental growth options. 

• Consider the larger, long-term investments like transnational campuses (TNCs) that can help your institution weather global storms and build your global brand, but take so much time and energy to develop. 

• Talk to your leadership about the realities inside and outside your institution. Review with them the regional (or other competitive) options students have and how your institution’s position is playing (Generic? Practical? Inspirational?). 

• Provide your leadership with realistic outcome projections with a timeline and growth investment options. Be prepared for the, “We need growth without any further investment” response and confirm (with data) that such thinking will push the institution into the pool of those that will be “culled from the herd.” Explain the internal staffing and external partner realities that support or hinder your outcome projections. 

Need help sorting through all of this? Be in touch.