Predicting Student Yield: The Demonstrated Intent Challenge

Unlike most of his peers, my son (it’s Carrie talking here) applied to just two higher ed institutions. He got into both. Accepted both. Put down a deposit on both. Will attend just one. And so, he’s part of the admissions problem.  

Our colleague (and contributor to today’s post) Jon Boeckenstedt, retiring vice provost of enrollment management at Oregon State University, explains it like this: A lot of people think yield is like planting saplings in greenhouses, where your success is highly dependent on things you control, like spacing, soil quality, temperature, water, etc. In fact, yield is more like scattering seeds, where you are hopeful, and you have some ideas of success based on prior years, but in reality, you're at the mercy of factors you have zero control over.  

As an example: Last year, UCLA received 146,276 applications. About 13,114 students or 9% were admitted. For comparison, just 4 years earlier, in 2020, the university had an acceptance rate of 18%. And a decade+ ago in 2010, it was 23%. Go back further to 2000, it was 29%. And wait for it, in 1990, it was just above 40%. A lot has changed in a 30+ years. 

Read on… 

Tracking Intent: Who’s In, Who’s Out? And Who Cares? 

Using simple numbers, the question institutions wrestle with: If we have an incoming class of 500 students and 500 residence hall spaces to fill, how many do we have to admit?

• Which of the 1,000 applicants had the highest level of interest?
• How many were treating us like a safety while they hoped for their dream school? How do we offer admissions to those most likely to take us up on that offer?
• How do we avoid wasting our offers?
• How do we allocate our institutional aid to best effect the revenue needs and mission of our college?
• How do we ensure our housing gets filled? How do we ensure we do not welcome more students than we can house?   

Your president and CFO have questions. And enrollment teams must answer, or risk losing credibility with university leadership. 

In our work within the admissions process, we’ve found that the applicant behaviors outlined below do demonstrate intent to enroll. Some are obvious. We know, of course, that campus visits show real interest. What other “extra effort” activities can we deploy to help us know how serious one student applicant is vs. another?  

Enrollment leaders know, of course, that most predictive factors can be artificially manipulated by students, so they also lean on factors students can’t control: The wealth of parents, the history of the high school as a “feeder” (or not), the student’s ZIP code, and even whether the parent is an alumnus. These factors give institutions additional insight into every student’s desire and propensity to enroll. 

Below, we review some of the intent evaluators from the “duh” to a few new takes on things that may prompt ideas and help you adjust your approach to predicting yield. All of the following indicators also work as contraindications. In other words, if a prospective student is not doing these things, downgrade them in terms of the level of effort your team puts into recruiting them.  

Let us know what you think in the comments below. We know you have both experience and ideas to share!

Highly Predictive Indicators 

• Early Decision: As sure a bet as you’re going to get. These applicants know they’re required to attend if admitted. Those who back out usually do so due to extenuating circumstances. Only a small percentage of US institutions use this tactic. 

• Student-Initiated Conversations: If a student reaches out to admissions directly, that’s a great sign. Most students are reluctant to engage directly, unless they are quite serious about an institution. Their questions indicate an interest in whether or not your institution will meet their needs. In marketing speak, these are “buying behaviors.” 

• Campus Visits: Prospective students who make the time to visit your campus in person are highly engaged. These leads deserve sustained outreach. You’re obviously tracking students who attend official campus tours hosted by admissions; be sure to track those who participate in campus-adjacent activities like Greek Discovery Days, intramural sports events, or preview days held by student-run religious or community service organizations. 

• Virtual Visits: Not every interested prospect can make it to an on-campus tour (especially your prospective international students). Attendance at your admissions webinars, online Q&A sessions, and other online recruitment events signals strong interest. Need ideas to woo more prospects to these events? Be in touch. Hot topics for webinars and online discussions:
  • What Happens in American Classrooms?
  • College Hacks to Make Your Freshman Year Painless
  • Best Cell Phone Deals for Students (we're not kidding)
  • Ask your team for more creative ideas. Avoid the “how to apply” or “info session” webinar titles. Snoozers for sure. 

• Email and Portal Engagement: Prospects who open your emails, click links, or frequently log into their application portal demonstrate interest. Emails that seemed dormant but gain traction later in the admissions cycle are promising – so don’t give up on prospects too soon. How well does your CRM track these leads? You’ll want to track beyond open rates and look at how long after you sent the email that the open or click happened. The sooner after your send (less than 30 minutes? 1 hour?), the more interest indicated. Timing matters.

• Nurture Comms of All Sorts: Your team is likely employing WhatsApp and other channels to build and maintain the connection (need help with WhatsApp business implementation – see our very popular “how to” guides in these 2 posts [part 1, part 2]. What we know: if a prospective student shares their mobile number with you, they are much more likely to be a fan. Asking for and then having a prospective student share this kind of information is a strong indicator that you’re closer to the top of their list. Give them a reason to want to share through giveaways and other incentives (10% off university swag at our bookstore!).

• Faculty Interaction. Direct engagement with faculty, especially within their intended program of study, is a strong sign of interest. And no, faculty engagement is not just for graduate prospects. Motivated undergraduates also benefit from faculty connections. Can you make that option more available during recruitment season, during campus tours, and during recruitment-focused webinars? 
  

Moderately Predictive Indicators 

• Early Action: These prospects show strong interest, though EA typically does not require student commitment for the vast majority of institutions. (A small percentage of schools do consider EA restrictive.) You are in better shape than the other 8 institutions this candidate sent an application to on the regular schedule. Still, you can bet that since EA is non-binding, that student is submitting an EA application to other institutions they truly value. So, perhaps less an indicator of true intent than an indicator of personality type: proactive planner vs. procrastinator. 

• Post-Admit Essay Response. Weaving in an essay opportunity post-admittance also gauges interest. Often, it is tied to scholarship opportunities. These application add-ons have value if you are offering the student some financial support. Yet, with AI available, these brief additional essays have less value as an indicator of real intent. A 250-to-400-word statement can be generated and customized in minutes with AI support. Again, perhaps more of a personality indicator than true intent to attend your institution. Nevertheless, taking an extra step means they took the time to express interest in your institution. 

• Partnership Programs: Students in your summer or dual enrollment programs or community college pathways as transfers have a natural momentum toward enrollment. Many institutions are also creating summer programs/camps for high school students (grades 9-12 or even earlier), building affinity with the campus environment. These programs increase the likelihood that an applicant is more serious about attending an institution they already know. Can you incorporate more faculty and current student interactions into these high school student programs to build bonds and interest? An ice cream social or pizza party with your “oh so hip” enrolled students can go a long, long way to build bonds. Help them envision what their student experience will be like once they fully enroll. 

• Common App Barrier: Use the Common App to help weed out the most interested from the least by putting in a specific-to-your-university essay as a barrier (as in, an extra optional step that only the more serious will take). Similar caveats here to the Post-Admit Essay Response above. 

• Alumni Connections. Alumni are among your best, and typically least utilized assets (especially your international alumni!). Prospects who connect with alumni at an event or on LinkedIn show a solid level of interest and intent. Tracking here is key and often difficult since these activities typically occur outside your CRM. To assess your readiness to more fully incorporate your international alumni into your recruiting process, see our evaluation form here. 
  

Mildly Predictive Indicators 

• “Why This College” Supplemental Essay: A well-crafted, authentic response can reveal genuine interest in your program. An opportunity for you to see if their goals align with your programs. Again, with AI now available for content creation, this tool becomes less predictive. 

• Geographic Commitment. Out-of-state or international students who have prior engagement with your region may be more apt to ultimately attend compared to those who have not traveled much. When a remote student indicates they have family in the area, your institution has an added allure. 

• Defined Major. Prospects with a defined major are likely to follow through with their applications. If, somehow, they are applying with a defined major that your institution does not have or your program is noticeably weak compared to other reasonable options (competitors), well, there’s a negative indicator for your team.  

• Social Media Engagement: Following or interacting with your institution’s social media pages signals curiosity. How well are you tracking this? We know it can be unwieldy. There are tools out there to help you monitor your social media engagement specifically for recruitment. A recent new find: MeetYourClass offers interesting ways to gauge intent from the point of application and continue your institution’s engagement with applicants. This kind of tracking, done right, can elevate your intent assessment to the highly predictive rather than mildly predictive.   

BIG thanks to our esteemed colleague Jon Boeckenstedt for co-authoring this piece with us. Be sure to follow his admissions blog or connect with him on LinkedIn. You'll appreciate, as we do, the data he shares along with his wit-infused observations about enrollment management.

And, for strategies to track high-value prospects from inquiry to enrollment, be in touch. We’ll work together to improve your yield prediction processes and your actual yield.