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Recruiting Intelligence

Predicting Student Yield: The Demonstrated Intent Challenge

Unlike most of his peers, my son (it’s Carrie talking here) applied to just two higher ed institutions. He got into both. Accepted both. Put down a deposit on both. Will attend just one. And so, he’s part of the admissions problem.  

Our colleague (and contributor to today’s post) Jon Boeckenstedt, retiring vice provost of enrollment management at Oregon State University, explains it like this: A lot of people think yield is like planting saplings in greenhouses, where your success is highly dependent on things you control, like spacing, soil quality, temperature, water, etc. In fact, yield is more like scattering seeds, where you are hopeful, and you have some ideas of success based on prior years, but in reality, you're at the mercy of factors you have zero control over.  

As an example: Last year, UCLA received 146,276 applications. About 13,114 students or 9% were admitted. For comparison, just 4 years earlier, in 2020, the university had an acceptance rate of 18%. And a decade+ ago in 2010, it was 23%. Go back further to 2000, it was 29%. And wait for it, in 1990, it was just above 40%. A lot has changed in a 30+ years. 

Year 

UCLA Acceptance Rate 

1990 40+%
2000 29%
2010 23%
2020 18%
2024 9%

 

UCLA is not unique in this way.  


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Applications have skyrocketed for most institutions. For top-tier universities, this surge makes them even more selective (or rejective) — great for prestige and ranking supposedly, tough for admissions teams and applicants alike. For the majority of institutions, however, the steep rise in applications is just that, a steep rise in applications. Yield is on a different trajectory, and it’s driven by a simple concept: Algebra.  

The rise in applications has dramatically outpaced the increase in college-bound students, and of course, a student can only enroll in one institution, whether they are admitted to two or twenty. This then leads to a big increase in the volume of ibuprofen intake by admissions teams, as predicting the behavior of students is getting harder all the time. While institution leaders continue to demand enrollment results.

Thank goodness for the consistent ibuprofen supply.

We can point to the Common App as the bane of the admissions process. But that’s not really fair. Its advent brought more students into the system, increasing access overall. So, there’s the good. And not every university seeing the surge uses the Common App, and the University of California system is among those that do not.  

The real drivers of the application tsunami: access, competition, and coaching from influencers like school counselors and advisors. There are pros and cons to this situation. Ironically, the unpredictable nature of admissions decisions causes stress, which causes students to hedge their bets and apply to more colleges, which makes the admissions process less predictable. 

For context: 

  • In 2000, the typical applicant applied to three to five institutions.  
  • Today, the average student applies to eight to 12+, simply because they can.  
  • In 1998, when Common App went digital, ~250,000 applications were submitted through it.  
  • In 2024, that number hit 7.3 million – a 2,820% increase. (Yes, they have many more institutions as clients today, but still!)
The problem, of course, isn’t just the mountain of applications (besides, new AI tools are now helping with that to some degree). The problem is predicting yield to land just the right number of students who can bring just the right amount of revenue (and did we mention housing capacity?).   

Read on… 

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Intead’s Top 10 Blog Posts of 2023: Chosen by Readers

 

2023 ushered in some much-needed numbers. Enrollment rose among undergraduate (+2.1%) and graduate (+0.7%) students. And while freshmen enrollment trended downward (-3.6%), interest in shorter-term credentials was on the rise (+9.9%). All this per National Student Clearinghouse figures. 

Likewise, IIE Open Doors data showed a 12% increase of incoming international students in 2022-23. And the more up-to-date SEVIS data indicated 2023 fall enrollment maintained this welcomed momentum. All good news in aggregate. As we parse all these data sets, there are interesting findings and nuanced opportunities to be sure. 

Yet, all news was not good. The chaos of the world at large continued to make its way onto campuses across the nation. Safety continues to be a growing concern, and your prospective students and their families are unsure what to make of it. More admissions inquiries shift from campus life to safety and mental health support services. Also important to note: social justice activities influence an increasing number of applicants. 

In the midst of it all, we do our best to use this blog to weigh in on topics that matter to enrollment teams like yours. So, it’s always interesting for us to look back and see which posts were your faves for most valuable content from the year. There are always a few surprises. 

In 2023, there was a ton of interest in all things internationalization – especially around how student activity in India and China is changing. But that’s not all.

We were told our posts on student career prep, social media trends, and budgeting framework were also really helpful. So, with that, we share our top 10 posts from 2023, as chosen by you, our readers. Plus our staff pick for the most valuable post of 2023. If you missed any of these top pieces, you’ll want to read on…  

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NACAC 2023 Reflections


Most inspiring feature of NACAC ‘23: Angel Perez, NACAC CEO, interviewing Maryland Governor Wes Moore and US Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona in the opening Plenary for 7,000+ attendees. Representation matters.  

This conversation, in the way it was introduced by a power team of NACAC leaders and the dialogue that followed, demonstrates so very much about what we can do to move forward in the face of strong opposition. Bring our unrelenting energy and talent, grounded in the forthright presentation of ideas and ideals. Meet the challenge, whatever it may be, with unwavering, appreciative inquiry. Communicate the vision in ways everyone can understand. 

The conference that followed with all the sessions, networking, and the many interactions showed that NACAC has still got it. And the Baltimore Convention Center people flow worked better than many other large venues we’ve been to. Below we offer additional 2023 Enrollment Trend Observations and the slides from our presentation on the current state of the international enrollment. The data we share offers you an outstanding opportunity to benchmark your own institution against nearly 200 others. 


Opportunities to meet in person:

The Intead team is gearing up for some amazing presentations and we hope you can join us. 

  • CIEE 76th Annual Conference in Paris, Nov 8-10, 2023 
  • PIE News Live in Boston, Nov 13-15, 2023 
  • AIRC Annual Conference – we’ll be offering our full day digital marketing workshop here in Phoenix, Dec 6-9, 2023 
  • ICEF North America Workshop in Miami, Dec 10-13, 2023 

Let us know if you’ll come share a cup of coffee and a conversation about all things global and digital (info@intead.com


Intead’s presentation at NACAC 2023 with Robert Summers from Middle Tennessee State University and Jennifer Wright from AIRC was, of course, in the furthest most possible session room, and the A/C in the Convention Center seemed to get stronger and stronger the further you got from the entrance. So, we cheered when we saw 70+ attendees actually show up on the distant shores of room 348 and suffer through our data display in near arctic conditions. We thank you all! 

I exaggerate, of course. But it was pretty darn cold. And the data we presented wasn’t exactly warm and fuzzy. It is here and available for download in the link at the end of this blog post. Read on… 

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