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Recruiting Intelligence

Predicting Student Yield: The Demonstrated Intent Challenge

Unlike most of his peers, my son (it’s Carrie talking here) applied to just two higher ed institutions. He got into both. Accepted both. Put down a deposit on both. Will attend just one. And so, he’s part of the admissions problem.  

Our colleague (and contributor to today’s post) Jon Boeckenstedt, retiring vice provost of enrollment management at Oregon State University, explains it like this: A lot of people think yield is like planting saplings in greenhouses, where your success is highly dependent on things you control, like spacing, soil quality, temperature, water, etc. In fact, yield is more like scattering seeds, where you are hopeful, and you have some ideas of success based on prior years, but in reality, you're at the mercy of factors you have zero control over.  

As an example: Last year, UCLA received 146,276 applications. About 13,114 students or 9% were admitted. For comparison, just 4 years earlier, in 2020, the university had an acceptance rate of 18%. And a decade+ ago in 2010, it was 23%. Go back further to 2000, it was 29%. And wait for it, in 1990, it was just above 40%. A lot has changed in a 30+ years. 

Year 

UCLA Acceptance Rate 

1990 40+%
2000 29%
2010 23%
2020 18%
2024 9%

 

UCLA is not unique in this way.  


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Applications have skyrocketed for most institutions. For top-tier universities, this surge makes them even more selective (or rejective) — great for prestige and ranking supposedly, tough for admissions teams and applicants alike. For the majority of institutions, however, the steep rise in applications is just that, a steep rise in applications. Yield is on a different trajectory, and it’s driven by a simple concept: Algebra.  

The rise in applications has dramatically outpaced the increase in college-bound students, and of course, a student can only enroll in one institution, whether they are admitted to two or twenty. This then leads to a big increase in the volume of ibuprofen intake by admissions teams, as predicting the behavior of students is getting harder all the time. While institution leaders continue to demand enrollment results.

Thank goodness for the consistent ibuprofen supply.

We can point to the Common App as the bane of the admissions process. But that’s not really fair. Its advent brought more students into the system, increasing access overall. So, there’s the good. And not every university seeing the surge uses the Common App, and the University of California system is among those that do not.  

The real drivers of the application tsunami: access, competition, and coaching from influencers like school counselors and advisors. There are pros and cons to this situation. Ironically, the unpredictable nature of admissions decisions causes stress, which causes students to hedge their bets and apply to more colleges, which makes the admissions process less predictable. 

For context: 

  • In 2000, the typical applicant applied to three to five institutions.  
  • Today, the average student applies to eight to 12+, simply because they can.  
  • In 1998, when Common App went digital, ~250,000 applications were submitted through it.  
  • In 2024, that number hit 7.3 million – a 2,820% increase. (Yes, they have many more institutions as clients today, but still!)
The problem, of course, isn’t just the mountain of applications (besides, new AI tools are now helping with that to some degree). The problem is predicting yield to land just the right number of students who can bring just the right amount of revenue (and did we mention housing capacity?).   

Read on… 

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How much to pay commission-based student recruiters?

The agent debate ended a number of years ago for most of us. Sure, there are a few stragglers complaining about the unethical practices out there.

Our view: Every industry has unethical characters. Commission-based recruiters, as a group, have more than their fair share. Basic buyer beware precautions are the rule. Careful vetting and management of your recruiters will keep you from getting burned more than once.

Rather than being asked whether commission-based agents are a valid recruitment channel, we are now consistently asked, “What is the going rate?” And the market is shifting.

Intead and AIRC set out to understand as much as we could from both universities and agents in the current market. We published our report late last year and offered up a well-attended webinar.

Want to learn more about what others are paying their agents and how they are managing those relationships? Our most recent research findings and the webinar recording are just a click away.

Read on…

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Developing Essential Skills Within Your Recruitment Team

This week, Ben at Patricia are in Miami at the AIRC conference 2018, where they will be hosting a digital marketing workshop alongside Angel Ahmed, CEO of GNET, and Hillary Dostal, Director, Global Initiatives at Northeastern University. This expert team and comprehensive workshop will help international recruitment leaders develop strategic communications plans that differentiate their unique institutions. And, they will be talking about the skills needed throughout the process to achieve success. 

Plans are only as good as the team executing them. Seems obvious, right?

Is your team aligned on your strategic enrollment plan? Do you have a comprehensive marketing plan to work from? Are there gaps in the skill sets? We bet there are at least a few areas that could use improvement, right?

This week we want to walk you through our strategic marketing workshop format and a series of corresponding worksheets available via Intead Plus to guide your marketing and enrollment teams. Ready? Let's check it out. 

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10 Websites in China Your Admissions Department Should Know

The following post has been updated from an article published on ICEF Monitor on September 5, 2014. It was originally co-authored by Michael Waxman-Lenz, co-founder of Intead, and Jiangyinan Zhai, a graduate student of integrated marketing at New York University. It has since been heavily revised and updated for 2018 by Intead's very own Wanhua (Jenny) Yuan, Digital Analyst; Cathryn Andrews, Marketing Communications Manager; and Ben Waxman, CEO. 

Is your admissions department challenged with social media and digital media management? It’s no wonder with new sites, platforms, and new channels coming up all the time.

Approaching the Chinese student market is a challenge – there is no doubt about it. The Chinese digital world essentially exists in it's own self-contained environment, limiting or forbidding access to many western sites and operating an entirely unique set of platforms. Where to begin? 

We would like to give you a number of practical pointers to enhance your knowledge and your management of the digital footprint of your university or high school in China.

Special Notes: This month Intead releases our latest research report, in partnership with Vericant: What's on the Mind's of Chinese Parents? A Research Report for U.S. Admissions Professionals on the Factors Swaying Academic Decision-Making. This post will include excerpts from the report detailing websites that Chinese parents indicate have been influential in their academic decision-making process. To learn more about these sites and how you can use them to promote your institution in China, you can download the full report as part of an Intead Plus membership. So much value. So little cost.

Ben and Patricia look forward to catching up with many of you and your colleagues at NACAC in Salt Lake City next week. Get in touch so we can tell you more about our latest research and learning (info@intead.com). 

Some great marketing tips follow. Read on...

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Are You Ready for Fall Recruitment Travel?

Itinerary. Check. Tickets. Check. Hotel confirmations. Check. Passport. Check. Seems like you're all ready for your fall international student recruitment travel. But are you? What is your strategy for building and maintaining connections with the prospective students and parents you meet on the road? What's the point of traveling, the financial and time commitment, if you aren't going to effectively leverage your contacts?

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Is Your Career Services Office Cutting Edge?

How cutting edge is your institution's career services office? When key reports are published is the data considered for future planning? What is YOUR career services department doing with the Glassdoor report regarding employers hiring by sector?

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Will Your Student Fair Provider Deliver Value This Recruiting Season?

Recruiting tours, fairs and the associated travel expenses are some of the biggest line items in an institution's recruiting budget. Given the investment of time and money to achieve student recruiting goals through travel, we hear the same great questions every year related to this topic. How do you know if you're getting the most bang for your buck in terms of recruitment travel? This is article is part one of two on this subject.

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Is Education Losing the PR War?

As admissions officers and higher education marketers, we are out there "selling," "marketing," and "explaining" our institutions and services. We are all committed to the value of education. Most of us appreciate the environment and respect the act of learning. University academic staff liked college so much that they never left school!  But what is happening around us?   We are selling into an environment that does not necessarily prioritize education for the sake of education, but is rightly looking for a preparation for life with a focus on professionalism. 

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479 Out of Office Messages = Many Frequent Flyer Miles

Do you watch your frequent flyer status? To be honest I do, too.  I like free flights. And it helps to have status for early boarding and luggage perks as airlines have gotten so stingy and charge for bathroom visits (no, they haven't come up with that one...yet).  For this blog, I have selected a few services that can make your travel easier.

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Intead Index: Credential Evaluation Companies

Here it is. Delivered fresh to your mailbox. Another exciting edition of the Intead Index, one in a series of indices that provides you with all of the information you need to make informed decisions.

In this edition we provide you with a comprehensive chart outlining the many credential evaluation companies. 

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