Recruiting Intelligence

Five years from now what will you be glad you did right now, this year? 

IIE here in the US and other prognosticators across the pond who track student mobility have predicted the number of international students in the US and around the world could double by 2030. Some projections suggest upwards of 10M or more globally. We’re not placing any bets on that figure. However… 

We’re optimistic about international student numbers and the opportunities ahead in higher education. We’re not banking on 10M+ in the next few years. That’s a bit of a stretch by our measure. But continued growth will come and the question is whether your institution is psychologically capable of weathering the storms and building for the future, or bureaucratically paralyzed and unable to capitalize on the opportunities ahead.  

Said simply: Resilient individuals and businesses adapt, leverage their strengths, and pursue opportunities to grow. 

Pro Tip: Your academic leadership will value reading this post. (Share button below)

What you do in the coming year will set the stage for the benefits you reap five years from now. Sit on your hands due to fear of the ambiguity that surrounds us, and all those who are acting now will be miles in front of you in 2030. Miles.   

Below we offer three specific areas where we think smart institutions and academic leaders will focus their attention in the years ahead to capitalize on future growth opportunities. How many of the three do you think you can help your institution address? 

Some context: Back in the day, our industry’s powerhouse forecasters were looking at the global growth of students seeking a foreign education from 2010 through 2016 and said with absolute confidence that there would be 8M+ international students globally by 2020. Maybe you were sitting with me in those conference presentations? Had trends continued on pace, that would have been true. Emphasis on “had trends continued on pace.” 

Instead, global factors combined with the US Muslim ban (Trump 1.0) were followed by a global pandemic (COVID 19). Those student numbers (8M+) have yet to pan out. But significant growth has happened - just 20% shy of the projection by 2020. (UNESCO reports 6.4M students globally studying in a country other than their own that year and we are at about 7M today.) Trend predictions are complicated by so many factors. Some might say predictions are truly unpredictable ; -)

Opportunities to Meet the Intead Team  

• Look for us at ASU+GSV next week, and NAFSA in May. Let us know  if you want to connect at these events.

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Access 800+ articles, slides decks, reports with relevant content on any topic important to enrollment management and student recruiting.  Check it out.

Here's the thing: there are some human behaviors and economic factors that we feel very confident about. And that helps us understand the world and get a strong sense of what is likely coming our way in the years ahead.  

Reality: The US is now grappling with Trump 2.0, which is full of bluster and chaos-inducing pronouncements equivalent to watching an over-the-top World Wrestling Federation pre-fight drama. It’s all designed to draw attention and ramp up excitement for a spectacle. Often, there’s no substance to the bluster, though it consistently delivers pain. 

This drama coming from the US White House makes predictions all the more challenging. You need to push past all the obfuscating dry ice smoke machine billows to get at baseline reality. 

So yes, despite the chaos surrounding US policies and politics and how that will play out around the world, we have reason to believe international student numbers will rise over time similar to our confidence that the stock market will rise over time. We can’t tell you if the market will be up or down tomorrow or next year, but longitudinally, stocks have gone up since the market’s founding, and international student mobility has gone up as international travel has become more accessible. 

Consider this: In 1970, there were 310M airline passengers globally according to the World Bank. In 2024 the figure was 5.2B according to the International Air Transport Association. That’s an indicator of accessibility. Important to note, those figures include domestic and international flyers. 

Our belief in future growth of international student mobility primarily comes down to basic consumer (student) behavior trends, like increased usage of international flights (accessibility).  

Making the Accessible Visible 

Hailing from Hyderabad, Satya Nadella, current CEO and Chairman of Microsoft, earned his engineering master's degree at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee in 1990 and his MBA from the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business in 1997. On the minds of nearly every Indian engineering student today: “If he could do it, so can I.” A lure as strong as it is old.  

With the rise of social media since 2010, success stories have proliferated in ways the world has never seen before. Basic human behavior: communicating success builds desire among others (word of mouth referrals drive sales).  

Among all those who have not risen to the top of Microsoft, there are millions of former international students who have carved out careers and influential positions, inspiring and encouraging future generations to follow in their footsteps. And hear us when we tell you that your prospective international students are looking for the proven path forward. Without overpromising, your institution needs to tell that story and build confidence in that future. 

A graduate student from India attending a private New England university recently told our staff how searching for (and making real connections with) alumni and current students on LinkedIn is what landed her on campus in the US. In her words, she appreciated but generally bypassed the university’s marketing and contacted other international students who had been there, done that. Their stories convinced her to enroll in the institution. Case in point: basic human behavior tied to the advent of internet communication. 

What we know: A student who graduated just a few years ago and is now a manager at a major company is immediately relatable to prospective applicants (much more tangible to them than their aspirations to run Microsoft someday). These conversations make the journey feel more attainable.

So, when international alumni share their experiences—whether through personal networks, mentorship, or social media—they reinforce the appeal of studying in the US (or any other country that contributed to their success).  

Considering how well your institution leverages its international alumni? Find customized perspective here. 

While we believe word-of-mouth marketing will play a role in future international student enrollment growth, there are other factors working in our industry’s favor – namely how institutions are poised to react to the changing market and the pace at which these changes are implemented on your campus. You may be surprised to learn our take on the opportunities ahead. Read on…

We’re going to state the obvious and break it down. Because it seems some of your colleagues may need to hear this. Better coming from us than you.  Helpful perspective: historical data tell us that 30% to 40% of all US institutions see declining international enrollment in any given year. So, for your consideration...

First: If you are not seeing the enrollment results you want, something must change to produce new outcomes. (Someone wise has said: insanity is repeatedly doing the same thing and expecting different results. Apparently, it wasn’t Albert Einstein. Nevertheless, it holds up).   

Second: If you want to increase university enrollment fast, you’re going to have to put real money into the process. You’re likely going to continue doing what you already do because even though you are seeing diminishing returns, you can’t afford to lose them. So, new funds must be added to the existing budget.   

All obvious, right? Well, it seems folks need to hear it. But we have more to share here to help you get the numbers ... 

Opportunities to Meet the Intead Team  

• AIRC, Seattle-Bellevue, Washington, Dec. 4-7, 2024. Our team is here now with 3 powerful sessions on budgeting, pathways, and streamlining admissions processes. Come find us. 
• AIEA, Houston, Texas, March 02-05, 2025
• NAFSA Annual, San Diego, CA,  May 27-30, 2025

Bookmark this: Intead’s Resource Center 
Access 800+ articles, slides decks, reports with relevant content on any topic important to enrollment management and student recruiting.  Check it out.

Third: If you cannot access additional funds, you will have to cut something you are currently doing and reallocate those funds. If your leadership is of the innovative risk-taker mindset, you can stop doing some of your current, less effective things and put that money into the new thing. Your stronger results will be slow to materialize, and your leadership needs to stay the course (not pull the funding) when fabulous new results do not magically appear in year one. To maintain internal support, you must track your activity and report on the results along the way.

What you want with all the tracking is your ability to provide your leadership with the confidence that there is learning and progress going on that will lead to stronger results in the next couple of years. Know that your leadership is facing down a whole lot of criticism including daggers from across campus trying to remove your funding. The dagger throwers are expecting your plans to fail.  

Fourth (getting into the details): You have options when you think about innovating to produce new, stronger results. We review 12 primary recruiting options when we run our conference workshops on student recruiting. Today we take a quick look at each tactic with a careful eye on cost and flexibility.

Read on for our 12 recruitment option tips and perspective… 

Imagine a mid-size, private university, call it Opportunity University, gearing up for a recruitment push in Vietnam – a new target market for the institution. Excited by the potential and the green light from the provost, the nimble international recruitment team of two assembles a marketing campaign targeting what they assume to be their typical international prospects: high school students motivated to get a liberal arts education at a US institution that will lead to future career success.  

The standard international student profile, right? (Wrong, but we’ll get to that.) Running on a tight budget and timeline, they repurposed a campaign strategy that had previously proven successful with the Indian market (a dominant source of students for their computer science graduate programs). The response, however, was not what they had hoped.

The errors of this somewhat exaggerated story highlight a critical marketing misstep: relying on shallow persona development. Not thinking this stuff through can lead to serious marketing misses. Anyone who takes a simple bullet list of traits and runs with it (high school student, career-minded, uses WhatsApp, seeking international education) is not taking their role as marketer seriously.  

Personas often get a bad rap from jaded marketers who have seen the process based on simplistic stereotypes and then relied on as a holy grail. We hear you! We are not seeking Hollywood stereotypes here.

But well considered personas do align your broader marketing team so that your communications speak with a consistent integrity to each potential student segment. Well-crafted personas are all about internal team alignment around a common voice and marketing approach.

Opportunities to Meet the Intead Team  
- NAFSA Region XI, Hartford, Connecticut, Oct. 27-29, 2024
- PIE Live North America, Boston, MA, Nov. 19-20, 2024
- AIRC, Seattle-Bellevue, Washington, Dec. 4-7 -- including our pre-conference global marketing workshop. A full day of Intead global intel (lunch included ; -). Details here. 

Bookmark this: Intead’s Resource Center 
Access 800+ articles, slides decks, reports with relevant content on any topic important to enrollment management and student recruiting.  Check it out.

Unlike the fictitious Opportunity University, institutions that think critically and dive deep into student persona analysis understand that the development of multidimensional profiles is foundational to successful student recruitment strategies. They get that personas, when thoughtfully crafted, can anchor the entire marketing team around a coherent, effective, audience-centered strategy. It’s a north star for guiding marketing tactic selection, content development, design, student interactions, and marketing execution which includes selecting recruitment channels. 

The process of creating marketing personas itself helps dissect the complex student decision-making process by considering the target audience’s lifestyle, challenges, media consumption habits, and underlying motivations. It is so much more than a surface demographic dig. What you uncover during the process can lead to really compelling marketing that will resonate with your prospects because you will have firm insights into their mindset, influencers, and ultimately, their choices.  

On more than one occasion we’ve seen the persona discovery process actually lead to market retreat because the more intimate understanding made it clear the audience and programs on offer weren’t a good fit after all. Better to find out in the early stages than committing to a no-win grind. A sort of check and balance of your strategy. 

Complex persona development is the kind of thing large consumer packaging companies are so good at. During one of our internal innovation sessions the Intead team got into a discussion about how understanding your audience plays out. One quick case study was P&G’s “Thank You, Mom” campaign from the 2012 Olympics (London). If you don’t recall what we’re talking about, see the link below. Let us know your reaction. Tip: grab tissues first.  

So much emotion, and yet, all they were selling was laundry detergent and other basic goods. They knew exactly who their target audience was and why they used their products. And no, it wasn’t to simply keep clothes clean. The tagline lays it out, "It takes someone strong to make someone strong. Thank you, Mom." Suddenly, I have this urge to buy Tide. But I digress… 

The lesson here is the student journey to your institution is so much more complex and life altering. Just imagine what a thoughtful, well-understood persona could do for your student recruitment. Read on for our tips (pass them on to your team) … 

Have we been selling ourselves short? A recent working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research has got us thinking, "Yeah, maybe." 

The not so fine print in “Late Bloomers: The Aggregate Implications of Getting Education Later in Life” is this: the age at which you get your degree matters. The economists found that the younger you are when you get degreed, the stronger your financial return on the investment from that degree. As a result, it may be time to take a closer look at how you present your institution’s ROI.  

Events you won’t want to miss:

And look for us at these other industry events coming around the bend:

• ICEF North America in Niagara, Canada, May 1-3, 2024
• NAFSA 2024 Annual Conference and Expo in New Orleans, May 28-31, 2024
  
• GMAC 2024 Annual Conference in New Orleans, June 19-21, 2024

The Late Bloomers paper (link below), which looks at university grads beginning with the US 1930 birth cohort onward, also reveals that around 20% of students obtain their 4-year degree after age 30, hence the late bloomer label. A not so insignificant figure, with more than a few not so insignificant implications.  

Sure, the popular notion that university grads are early 20-somethings remains true enough, but the 1-in-5-student stat reveals this belief is not the whole truth – and never was. Turns out the non-traditional student market is significant (you’ve read our series on the non-traditional student advantage, yes?).  

Significant and new with this paper: the understanding that late bloomers’ ROI may not be as strong as once thought. On the flip side, the new data analysis means the ROI for younger grads is even stronger than we believed. Interesting, and worth promoting.  

Other notable findings from the paper: Late bloomers have helped narrow the gender and racial gaps in university enrollment, even despite a widening racial gap among the early university grad set. And, late bloomers account for more than half of the growth in the share of university-educated adults from 1960 to 2019.  

There’s a lot to unpack here, including why we think you may be selling yourself short based on these fresh insights. Read on…we’ll keep it actionable.