“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” as Yogi Berra is famously quoted as saying.
In general, it seems much more fun to make long-term predictions, since nobody will check back whether we are right or wrong. And yet, with this blog coinciding with Election Day, there are plenty of pundits making all kinds of near term predicitions as we write this blog. At least half of them are going to be wrong. Will any of us go back and take them to task?
So why all this talk about predictions? The British Council published their 2024 forecast for postgraduate mobility trends. ICEF was kind enough to post the full report.
- Continued strong growth in post-graduate mobility
- The U.S. is projected to grow 4% per year and host 407,000 graduate students (Good news since the graduate school deans were worried about their enrollment figures.)
- India will be a driving force and Chinese graduate students are expected to increase despite a decline of 30 million students in China
- Useful summary of demographic trends for higher education
- The status quo is projected forward without any impact from technological, policy or attitudinal changes
The authors state clearly that they rely on trends, "for which there is data available, and do not take into account other variables that may affect international student mobility in the future."
We'll be honest with you, we are really struggling with this last line. Making predictions about the future without considering other variables for which you have no data? Hmmmm.