Recruiting Intelligence

Five years from now what will you be glad you did right now, this year? 

IIE here in the US and other prognosticators across the pond who track student mobility have predicted the number of international students in the US and around the world could double by 2030. Some projections suggest upwards of 10M or more globally. We’re not placing any bets on that figure. However… 

We’re optimistic about international student numbers and the opportunities ahead in higher education. We’re not banking on 10M+ in the next few years. That’s a bit of a stretch by our measure. But continued growth will come and the question is whether your institution is psychologically capable of weathering the storms and building for the future, or bureaucratically paralyzed and unable to capitalize on the opportunities ahead.  

Said simply: Resilient individuals and businesses adapt, leverage their strengths, and pursue opportunities to grow. 

Pro Tip: Your academic leadership will value reading this post. (Share button below)

What you do in the coming year will set the stage for the benefits you reap five years from now. Sit on your hands due to fear of the ambiguity that surrounds us, and all those who are acting now will be miles in front of you in 2030. Miles.   

Below we offer three specific areas where we think smart institutions and academic leaders will focus their attention in the years ahead to capitalize on future growth opportunities. How many of the three do you think you can help your institution address? 

Some context: Back in the day, our industry’s powerhouse forecasters were looking at the global growth of students seeking a foreign education from 2010 through 2016 and said with absolute confidence that there would be 8M+ international students globally by 2020. Maybe you were sitting with me in those conference presentations? Had trends continued on pace, that would have been true. Emphasis on “had trends continued on pace.” 

Instead, global factors combined with the US Muslim ban (Trump 1.0) were followed by a global pandemic (COVID 19). Those student numbers (8M+) have yet to pan out. But significant growth has happened - just 20% shy of the projection by 2020. (UNESCO reports 6.4M students globally studying in a country other than their own that year and we are at about 7M today.) Trend predictions are complicated by so many factors. Some might say predictions are truly unpredictable ; -)

Opportunities to Meet the Intead Team  

• Look for us at ASU+GSV next week, and NAFSA in May. Let us know  if you want to connect at these events.

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Here's the thing: there are some human behaviors and economic factors that we feel very confident about. And that helps us understand the world and get a strong sense of what is likely coming our way in the years ahead.  

Reality: The US is now grappling with Trump 2.0, which is full of bluster and chaos-inducing pronouncements equivalent to watching an over-the-top World Wrestling Federation pre-fight drama. It’s all designed to draw attention and ramp up excitement for a spectacle. Often, there’s no substance to the bluster, though it consistently delivers pain. 

This drama coming from the US White House makes predictions all the more challenging. You need to push past all the obfuscating dry ice smoke machine billows to get at baseline reality. 

So yes, despite the chaos surrounding US policies and politics and how that will play out around the world, we have reason to believe international student numbers will rise over time similar to our confidence that the stock market will rise over time. We can’t tell you if the market will be up or down tomorrow or next year, but longitudinally, stocks have gone up since the market’s founding, and international student mobility has gone up as international travel has become more accessible. 

Consider this: In 1970, there were 310M airline passengers globally according to the World Bank. In 2024 the figure was 5.2B according to the International Air Transport Association. That’s an indicator of accessibility. Important to note, those figures include domestic and international flyers. 

Our belief in future growth of international student mobility primarily comes down to basic consumer (student) behavior trends, like increased usage of international flights (accessibility).  

Making the Accessible Visible 

Hailing from Hyderabad, Satya Nadella, current CEO and Chairman of Microsoft, earned his engineering master's degree at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee in 1990 and his MBA from the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business in 1997. On the minds of nearly every Indian engineering student today: “If he could do it, so can I.” A lure as strong as it is old.  

With the rise of social media since 2010, success stories have proliferated in ways the world has never seen before. Basic human behavior: communicating success builds desire among others (word of mouth referrals drive sales).  

Among all those who have not risen to the top of Microsoft, there are millions of former international students who have carved out careers and influential positions, inspiring and encouraging future generations to follow in their footsteps. And hear us when we tell you that your prospective international students are looking for the proven path forward. Without overpromising, your institution needs to tell that story and build confidence in that future. 

A graduate student from India attending a private New England university recently told our staff how searching for (and making real connections with) alumni and current students on LinkedIn is what landed her on campus in the US. In her words, she appreciated but generally bypassed the university’s marketing and contacted other international students who had been there, done that. Their stories convinced her to enroll in the institution. Case in point: basic human behavior tied to the advent of internet communication. 

What we know: A student who graduated just a few years ago and is now a manager at a major company is immediately relatable to prospective applicants (much more tangible to them than their aspirations to run Microsoft someday). These conversations make the journey feel more attainable.

So, when international alumni share their experiences—whether through personal networks, mentorship, or social media—they reinforce the appeal of studying in the US (or any other country that contributed to their success).  

Considering how well your institution leverages its international alumni? Find customized perspective here. 

While we believe word-of-mouth marketing will play a role in future international student enrollment growth, there are other factors working in our industry’s favor – namely how institutions are poised to react to the changing market and the pace at which these changes are implemented on your campus. You may be surprised to learn our take on the opportunities ahead. Read on…

Chinese student numbers are sobering. With the latest IIE data showing a 26.1% decline in total U.S. incoming students from China in 2021/22, you and your peers are more than aware. It’s the kind of stat that leaves a mark and prompts questions. 

Has your leadership posed this to you: “Should we be in China at this point?” 

If you regularly follow our blog then you know times like these call for a hard look at market diversification. It is a winning strategy. Your admissions team as well as the campus community stand to gain so much by building a diverse student population. Beyond the diverse, cross-cultural learning that is part of your mission, diversifying where you draw students from offers more financial confidence and reslience to your institution.  

Markets fluctuate. Diverse revenue streams stabilize. 

Today we look at why giving up on Chinese students is not in your best interest, nor is it in theirs. Diversify your market reach, yes. But tamping down your work with prospective Chinese families will limit your opportunities and future success. Maybe especially now. 

This is a blog post we think you'll want to share with other leaders on campus. A question: have you looked at the current youth unemployment rate in China?  

Quick aside: Ben and Iliana will be at the NACAC conference presenting alongside our colleagues from AIRC  and Middle Tennessee State University on September 22 in Baltimore. Can we schedule a time to chat? Coffee's on us! We still have room on our schedules.

For over two decades China has solidly been the top sender of students to the U.S. In 2021 alone this singular cohort added $10.5 billion to the U.S. economy per the U.S. Department of Commerce. And that’s on a down year. Sure, India is expected to surpass China in the not-too-distant future (more on that in an upcoming post), but China will remain a strong market.  

Let’s be clear: giving up on Chinese students during this downturn would be a mistake.  

Here’s the thing, while the declining enrollment of Chinese students in America is so much about the pandemic and politics, it’s the day-to-day reality of this cohort that should get your attention. The volume of students and their interest in a foreign education will continue to produce significant enrollment opportunities. Important that your strategy adapts to the times employing the right programs and messaging.  

Why is there continuing demand for a foreign education among Chinese students and families? Consider these current truths: 

• High Youth Unemployment Rates: Unemployment in China within the young urban population is stagnating at an ugly 20%. A number so stubborn and bleak that the government recently stopped reporting it altogether. What’s more, 70% of these unemployed are college graduates, according to a recent article in The Economist. Even more troubling, reliable Chinese economists outside the government suggest that the current youth unemployment rate may be more than double the government's previously published figure.

• The Government’s Get-Tough Response: Xi Jinping’s response to the current sour economy? He tells the young to “eat bitterness” and “seek self-inflicted hardships.” A bitter pill indeed for a generation that has grown up with aspirations of social mobility. After all, China has been more agreeable to private enterprise and other aspects of an open society in recent decades. Significant middle-class growth in China has powered the growth in international education and set a generation of expectations for opportunity. That time appears to be changing, a lot. 
• Disillusioned and Disaffected: A pervasive sentiment among China’s youth is that, regardless of their efforts, achieving a better quality of life feels increasingly unattainable. Jobs are scarce. Cities are less and less affordable to live in. The once semi-open culture now feels less so. Even marriage is losing its appeal. This cohort is disillusioned and disaffected. The government has cracked down on social media posts that refer to "laying flat," (e.g. slowing down and basically giving up). The younger, unemployed/underemployed segment who are discouraged and laying flat become dependent on their parents (referred to as "bite old") as they feel they have very low or no revenue or career prospects.

Economic and political pressures over the next couple years look to be significant within China. Amid this undeniably challenging time for young Chinese citizens, they have eyes on the world through social media. They see opportunity out there.  

Read on for our take on how to reassess and adapt your strategies to better serve this vital demographic in the near term. And we want you to be prepared to adapt as the pressures within China change as they are surely going to.  

Those of us with an entrepreneurial spirit and a global network typically see things others don’t. In the enrollment management field, the entrepreneur mindset is an asset, and yet…and yet, if only those in control of the purse understood what we understand about global markets and student motivations. 

The opportunities are there. The need is growing increasingly intense as revenue sources are threatened or declining. The Intead team shares your entrepreneurial enthusiasm and we are here to offer the insights that help you succeed. It’s one reason we connect so well with our university colleagues.   

Now, if only there were an easy way to satisfy your global entrepreneurial instinct while demonstrating recruitment success in such a way as to unequivocally justify your funding requests and get the programs you envision started and growing.  

Ben and Iliana will be at the NACAC conference presenting alongside our colleagues from AIRC on Sept 22 in Baltimore. Can we schedule a time to chat? Coffee's on us!

The simple truth: the root of successful international student recruitment lies in understanding your target markets, connecting with them, and effectively managing them over time. It has to do with simply doing the work as opposed to finding some magical online tool that suddenly produces all the enrollments you ever wanted. (Note the word magical in that last sentence).

To DO the work, you’ll need to take a deep dive into the macro- and micro-economics of what drives student mobility. Sounds more complicated than it is.  

If you’ve been following our blog, then you know we’ve been helping institutions like yours recruit international students for a very long time. Our multi-cultural marketing team, our bandwidth, and the tech systems in place bring focus and produce macro and micro level insights. Oh, and results. See case studies in our resource center here. 

Our work takes a load off our university counterparts who, like you, are being asked to over deliver while being chronically underfunded (and understaffed). We’ve seen what works and what doesn’t, including three common mistakes that will derail any international student recruitment program. Avoid these at all costs. Read on…

Your summer intake is taking shape and your dreams of a solid fall enrollment are far less murky. At this point, the numbers are fabulous? Frustrating? Fictitious? Let’s go with that first one.

Data-informed actions, whether the data is good or bad, will always help you improve. Our team recently attended three incredible conferences—the AGB, ACE, and NAFSA—and let us tell you, they were like rocket fuel! We soaked it all up and shared the take aways with you. [Find our 2023 Conference Take Aways Here: AIEA, AGB, NAFSA].

Did you catch a glimpse of the perspectives we shared? With so much going on, many of our faithful readers missed a few important ideas here and there. From the fight over the non-traditional student to the data buffet problem, we left no stone unturned.

Not to worry. Scroll down and check out all the news from the previous quarter.

Oh, and one more thing before we dive in—if you are not there already, follow us on LinkedIn. You’ll see our insights as they break from day to day.

Read on.

If only for a cohesive, supportive team.

Almost 1,000 Edu trustees and presidents attended the Association of Governing Boards (AGB) annual conference in San Diego a few weeks ago. 80% were university trustees – volunteers who help keep the US higher educational system running. That’s an impressive thought right there.

As you can imagine, conference sessions addressed big ideas. Yet, consistent themes came to life in almost every session I attended.

• Team approach is in short supply between trustees and university administrations.
• Pressure to change the higher ed business model is growing, yet few institutions have the wherewithal to address it as quickly as needed.
• Most have been avoiding the difficult conversations facing all of us. This is making things worse, even dire.

A bit of a downer. But stick with me. The ideas matter.

The higher ed business model has long needed to change. According to AGB, 25-35% of US institutions are experiencing a negative cash flow. Let that one sink in.

Quick math: the US has ~4,000 higher education institutions. 25% of 4,000 = 1,000. Mmmm hmmm.

Negative cash flow. 1,000+ institutions.

So that, along with the fear-inducing age demographics we are all grappling with (fewer traditional US students ahead), there is reason to be concerned and reason for the conference presenters to continue to ring the warning bell that has been sounding for nearly a decade. This has all been predictable and predicted.

Which brings us back to point #3 above: human beings don’t really like difficult conversations.

Which leads us to the importance of a cohesive team. The challenges we all must face right now, this year, and for the foreseeable future, require an aligned team. Those without that alignment are going to falter, a lot.

On the brighter side, it’s not as if human beings have never faced challenges before. The history of the world is full of stories of challenges faced and overcome. We have a responsibility to face the challenges before us now as those who came before us faced theirs – giving us the opportunities we have ahead.

Frederick Douglass: “If there is no struggle, there is no progress.”

Below you’ll find inspiring exploration of where we all go from here to make our institutions rise despite the challenging times. I’ve grabbed some of the best insights from the sessions that prompt us to explore, evaluate, plan…and then, since these are trustees, they hand it off to others to deliver. (That means you ; -) And don’t worry. We’re right by your side. We are up for it and eager to dive in.

To get the inside scoop on how your institution will face the future, read on…

That feeling when you recognize your passport stamps are indicators of future success – for you, and your future international students.

With all that 2023 travel and recruitment planning (so great to be back at it!), you may have missed some of our student recruitment analysis from Q1.

We’ll be in DC at the ACE annual conference in just a couple weeks and then we are planning some great things for NAFSA at the end of May. Can we connect with you at one of these events? Let us know.

We’ve summarized Q1 2023 right here to keep you up to speed. And we were heavy on the highly valuable downloadable resources this quarter. Go ahead, click where the insights grab you.

Read on...

So many SIOs and others working with international students tell us the broader campus community lacks meaningful insight into the role internationalization plays across their institutions. Maybe you and I have had this very conversation. It’s quite likely. It comes up a lot.

The ideal of internationalization is of course generally understood. But actually achieving a strategic, coordinated framework that integrates globally oriented policies and programs across departments, well that is a different story. The level of understanding and commitment certainly varies.

Sure, the international recruitment team gets it. And the international student services group, too. But how is internationalization playing out in housing, nutritional services, career services, IT, marketing, and across faculty programs? Every department has a role in achieving the mission for the benefit of all. Not just the international students! That's kinda the point, right? The internationalization mission is institution-wide for a reason.

We get that championing this can feel like an uphill battle.

Yet we know it’s worth the fight. The folks we talk to are not ones for lip service.

At the upcoming Association of Governing Boards (AGB) conference in San Diego, Edu trustees and presidents will be talking about all thingsinstitutional policy and process and we are looking forward to presenting our internationalization perspective to those attending. We want to empower leadership to offer guidance and insight into the intersectionality (dare we use that word! We're looking at you, Florida) of this highly educational and career-boosting aspect of university life.

We thank AGB for recognizing the value of this topic and for giving us the opportunity to present a holistic picture of what internationalization is and offer perspectives that will help trustees support a plan for progress with a clear focus on student-first initiatives.

Intead has the honor to be presenting to this distinguished crowd alongside Brad Farnsworth from Fox Hollow Advisory (former ACE VP) and Dr. Gretchen Bataille from GMB Consulting (former president of the U of North Texas among other amazing higher ed roles).

Know this: From the dais, we will be channeling all the concerns you’ve raised and offering insights these university leaders need to guide their institutions’ internationalization efforts. Your concerns and priorities are our North Star.

Read on to learn more about the program and the opportunity to share your ideas before we head to the conference…

Coming in hot off a truly inspiring in-person workshop with peers and industry leaders yesterday. So many wanted to come but for the timing (or internal approvals). Not to worry. We’ll catch you up in the new year. But the word is our industry is feeling optimistic. Even the new Open Doors data supports our enthusiasm.

Should this energy and associated momentum have kept you from diving into all our posts of late, we totally get it. No hard feelings. That’s why we’re putting all the top news from this fast-moving quarter together for you in one easy-access spot.

But first, if you’ll be at ICEF this week,be in touch. We’d love to connect.

Please note: Our Recruiting Intelligence Blog will be on holiday hiatus for the next 2 weeks. See you in 2023 with some great slide decks for you to download and a surprise announcement to help you achieve more.

Now, read on for best stuff (student lead platforms, 5-year data trends, LATAM stats, and more) from Q4…

The relief of entering a more “normal-ish” academic year is met with both new and familiar recruitment and admissions challenges: student housing shortages, diminishing interest in postsecondary education here in the US, eroding confidence in our academic institutions, and increasing competition for students from abroad. Oh, and the looming demographic cliff in the US.

One step forward. Two steps back. (Or was that four? Maybe let’s not count right now.) This from the marketing agency always pushing analytics ; -)

Truth is, we’re not that cynical. But if you are reading the edu literature, the headlines would push anyone in that direction.

Nevertheless, if you follow what IIE has to say, then in-person learning has rebounded, as has in-person study abroad and international applications. We are waiting on concrete industry enrollment numbers to confirm growth, but still, we know what is happening out there. There is progress on many fronts.

There are always cycles. And those who analyze and plan are far more likely to succeed. Too busy to do it well is not an option. Too cynical to fight for success really doesn’t work either. Optimism tied to well-researched targets motivates the team. Motivated, proactive partners can truly move the needle.

COME LEARN WITH US!

Among our colleagues in this field, we see a tremendous thirst for gathering and evaluating our options, with time to really talk it through. The Intead/San Diego State University One-Day Workshop will be a hands-on opportunity to learn from an awe-inspiring international student recruitment faculty.

• Full-day, hands-on workshop on strategy and execution: Come with questions, leave with a plan.
• Two luminary keynotes
  • Social Justice Luncheon with Dr. Jewell Winn and Adrienne Fusek
  • Chinese Student Influencers Dinner with Dr. Yingyi Ma and Brad Farnsworth

• At $200 for the day (inclusive of all meals), this learning opportunity is a steal. (Pricing goes up to $350 on October 24, 2022).

As you take a moment to weigh the opportunities in higher ed today, we offer a recap of the most valuable news from Q3 2022, including insights on China and Africa as well as some practical how-to tips on marketing to the Gen Z digital natives. Read on…

…and that’s a wrap for Q2 ‘22. While personally there were a few bumps along the way (thanks Covid for yanking #NAFSA2022 out from under me!), overall, the industry’s mood is decidedly improved over this time last year. Cautiously so, anyway.

Recent news we are following says that language programs are starting to recover from huge pandemic losses. Middle Eastern adults/executives are showing up first. As we know, language programs often act as canaries in the coal mine falling or rising in advance of fuller degree/certificate programs.

We bet you likely didn’t catch all of our posts this spring, admissions season being what it is – busy. Not to worry, we’ve compiled a few we think you won’t want to miss. Read on for our quarterly recap of the most valuable news from Q2 2022 and the Intead resources available to you.